PC share of DRAM market dips below 50% for first time, IHS says

Press release; Jessie Shen, DIGITIMES [Tuesday 18 September 2012]

In yet another sign that the technology industry has entered the post-PC era, personal computers during the second quarter of 2012 accounted for less than half of the market for DRAM - the first time in a generation that they did not consume the majority of the leading type of semiconductor memory, according to IHS iSuppli.

PCs in the second quarter accounted for 49% of DRAM bit shipments, down from 50.2% in the first quarter, said IHS. The fall is notable, given that the share of PCs has not dipped below 50% since the 1980s, when personal computers were a new product whose sales were rising at rapid clip. After accounting for the overwhelming share of DRAM buying for decades, average PC share from the first quarter of 2008 until the fourth quarter of 2011 hovered at approximately 55%, with share fluctuating periodically but generally trending down.

This event symbolizes the decline of the PC market because of smartphones and media tablets, IHS observed. However, beyond symbolism, the development also illustrates the diminishing dominion of PCs in the electronics supply chain.

"The arrival of the post-PC era doesn't mean that people will stop using personal computers, or even necessarily that the PC market will stop expanding," said Clifford Leimbach, memory analyst at IHS. "What the post-PC era does mean is that personal computers are not at the center of the technology universe anymore - and are seeing their hegemony over the electronics supply chain erode. PCs are no longer generating the kind of growth and overwhelming market size that can single-handedly drive demand, pricing and technology trends in some of the major technology businesses."

The fact that PCs have lost their majority share of the DRAM market - an area completely defined and dominated by personal computers for about 30 years - represents a major milestone and the arrival of a new era in technology, IHS noted.

"For DRAM suppliers, the focus in the future increasingly will be on serving the needs of fast-expanding new markets for smartphones and tablets, at the expense of catering to the PC business," Leimbach said. "This follows other indications of the waning influence of the PC business in the electronics business. Such factors include the declining power of the Wintel alliance, as well as Apple Inc.'s smartphone- and tablet-driven ascendency to chip purchasing leadership above traditional PC-oriented frontrunners like Hewlett-Packard."

During the period from the second quarter of 2012 to the fourth quarter of 2013, the portion of DRAM shipments accounted for by PCs will contract another 6pp, sliding to 42.8%, IHS predicted. In comparison, the share held by media tablets will continue to rise. Tablet share of the DRAM space in terms of bit shipments grew to 2.7% in the second quarter, up from 1.6% in the first quarter, and will gradually expand by 4pp until it hits 6.9% by the fourth quarter of 2013, according to IHS.

Meanwhile, cellphones will experience even faster growth, with their share of DRAM bits rising to 19.8% in the fourth quarter of 2013, up nearly seven points from 13.2% in the second quarter of 2012, said IHS. The combined share in the fourth quarter of 2013 by handsets and tablets of the DRAM market will reach 26.7% - almost double from 14.1% in the first quarter of 2013, IHS indicated.

The decline of PCs in DRAM share appears irreversible. However, PCs will remain the largest single market for DRAM at least through the end of 2013, and overall DRAM bit shipments for personal computers will continue to grow, IHS pointed out.

In addition, IHS noted that the growing share of tablets in the DRAM market can likewise be attributed to more DRAM bits being loaded onto the devices. The third-generation new iPad has double the DRAM content of its predecessor, with up to 1,024 megabytes - or one gigabyte - compared to 512MB in the iPad 2.

The additional DRAM in the new iPad brings it in line with direct competitors such as the Galaxy Tab 7.7 LTE from Samsung Electronics and the Jetstream from HTC, both of which also contain 1,024MB of DRAM. Among tablet devices, the Amazon Kindle Fire is the only tablet with less than 1GB, but the Kindle Fire is not competing directly with the more powerful tablet devices.

The long-term trend for DRAM in tablets is encouraging, IHS believes.